Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Are we at a Global Financial Inflexion Point?

The current global financial crisis rings a very strong bell for people who are aware of the 1929 Great Depression and the global socio-political and socio-economic climate then. The Great Depression was the lowest point for capitalism and preceded massive socialistic movements globally, including the rise of fascism. A major part of the world was still under imperial rule and was quite unaware of what was happening in the US and Europe. But the effect was there, and it changed the world significantly. It was certainly an Inflexion Point, using Andy Grove's term for a singular disrupting event that changes the rules of the game in business. It was not the first event that had repurcussions across the globe - the Great War, or the WWI as we know it, was the first one. And it led to major social upheavals and changes primarily in the participating nation-states. Turkey lost the Caliphate, blamed the Armenians for losses in Dardanelles and summarily executed hundreds of thousands in an uncannily similar fashion that the Nazis used decades later. USSR overthrew their Tsar and put in place the first Communist regime in the 20th century. European monarchies were abolished. Then in the '20s the Great Depression happened. Financial terms that were not very familiar the world over ,such as Inflation, became everyday household words. They led in a way to the coming to power of the NSDAP in Germany and the other fascist governments in Europe. 
We all know our history. And thats the keyword today - knowledge. That is the biggest differentiator between all the major events that changed the world earlier and now. Every major crisis is preceded by a string of sub-events. The Holocaust was preceded by the Kristallnacht, the WWII by the rising unrest in Germany over the Versailles reparation terms, compounded by the Depression conditions. Today, in a complicated, globalized world, everyone is aware and impacted by any financial event. Ofcourse, in the early days of the US sub-prime crisis, laypeople across the world, even in the US, did not anticipate the turn of events that have ensued since, but analysts the world over could sense something amiss. Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Lehman, Merill Lynch, AIG, etc joined a host of names that are now familiar in even quaint, remote towns in India. The first reaction in many cases was, has Capitalism as a concept maxed out? Even before Bear Stearns happened, we have been witnessing various crises the world over - and all of us are quite aware of them. Some global - like the Iraq war, the War on Terror , Al Qaeda, and some local - our naxal situation, the Kashmir problem. But these have been largely chronic issues gripping economies and nations over longer duration. A financial crisis ofcourse poses a much clearer danger - in the past few days, in India, we have seen a few major problems already. The Tata-Singur crisis, for one. But a more sinister, ominous event that seems far more disturbing, something that one could perhaps expect in and around 1929 but not in 2008. A CEO of an Italian Multinational getting lynched by a mob of retrenched employees represents that fear. Is this a one off event or could this be a sign of more to come? Things are not so simple today as they were earlier. Events or causes in those times could be stemmed at one place because of lack of awareness. Today, radical extremist organizations only need to use the email or the ubiquitous cell phone to reach out to their recruits, quite like corporate organizations. Rising inflation, spiked up gas prices, exponential rise of consumerism with every individual aspiring to have a better lifestyle, increasing disparity between the rich and the poor  have created a very dangerous cocktail that is laced with other myriad local and not-so-local issues such as ideological or communal differences. Any measure to bridge this apparent gap, by way of reduced/competitive pricing (an oversimplistic example), only results in reduced margins for organizations and further layoffs - like in the case of Granzino Transmissioni which saw the recent unfortunate incident. And that makes the current Global Financial crisis truly ominous. We can only wait and watch how this unfolds.

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